National Research Council Releases New Report That Estimates Higher Rates Of Sea Level Rise Than Previously Reported

A report released Friday June 22, 2012 by the National Research Council projects that the sea level off most of California is expected to rise about one meter over the next century, an amount slightly higher than projected for global sea levels, and will likely increase damage to the state's coast from storm surges and high waves.  

The report presents data indicating that global sea level rose during the 20th century, and provides estimates that it will rise at a higher rate during the 21st century.  A warming climate causes sea level to rise primarily by warming the oceans -- which causes the water to expand -- and melting land ice, which transfers water to the ocean.  However, sea-level rise is uneven and varies from place to place.  Along the U.S. west coast it depends on the global mean sea-level rise and regional factors, such as ocean and atmospheric circulation patterns, melting of modern and ancient ice sheets, and tectonic plate movements.   

Among its key findings, the committee that wrote the report projected that global sea level will rise 8 to 23 centimeters by 2030, relative to the 2000 level, 18 to 48 centimeters by 2050, and 50 to 140 centimeters by 2100.  The 2100 estimate is substantially higher than the United Nation's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's projection made in 2007 of 18 to 59 centimeters with a possible additional 17 centimeters if rapid changes in ice flow are included. 

For the California coast south of Cape Mendocino, the committee projected that sea level will rise 4 to 30 centimeters by 2030, 12 to 61 centimeters by 2050, and 42 to 167 centimeters by 2100.  For the Washington, Oregon, and California coast north of Cape Mendocino, sea level is projected to change between falling 4 centimeters to rising 23 centimeters by 2030, falling 3 centimeters to rising 48 centimeters by 2050, and rising between 10 to 143 centimeters by 2100.  The committee noted that as the projection period lengthens, uncertainties, and thus ranges, increase. 

Interestingly, the committee noted that tectonic activity may also be a factor in predicting impacts of sea level rise on the west coast.  For instance, the committee's projections for the California coast south of Cape Mendocino are slightly higher than its global projections because much of that coastline is subsiding, exacerbating the effects of rising waters.  The lower sea levels projected for northern California, Washington, and Oregon coasts are because the land there is rising.  In this region, the ocean plate is descending below the continental plate at the Cascadia Subduction Zone, pushing up the coast. 

The study was sponsored by the states of California, Washington, and Oregon; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; U.S. Geological Survey; and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.  More information and a link to the entire report can be found on the National Academy of Sciences website by clicking here.

If you have any questions concerning this topic, please contact Hanspeter Walter from our office, or the KMTG attorney with whom you normally consult.

California Department of Water Resources Finalizes Climate Action Plan

The California Department of Water Resources ("DWR") recently finalized and approved a Climate Action Plan ("Plan").  The first phase of this Climate Action Plan is a Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Plan, which will guide State Water Project development and decision making with respect to energy use and greenhouse gas ("GHG") emissions. The Plan outlines how DWR will make substantial reductions in its GHG emissions in the near-term (present to 2020) and how it will continue to reduce emissions beyond 2020 to achieve its long-term (2050) GHG emissions reduction goals. To this end, the Plan lays out both near-term and long-term GHG emissions reduction goals to guide decision making though 2050.  DWR's goals are:

• Near-term goal—reduce emissions by 50 percent below 1990 levels by 2020
• Long-term goal—reduce emissions by 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050

In order to meet these GHG emissions reduction goals, DWR has identified eleven GHG emission reduction measures that it will implement. These eleven GHG emissions reduction measures include DWR’s termination of its participation and associated delivery of electricity from a coal-fired power plant in Nevada, efficiency improvements to DWR’s existing facilities, purchase and development of renewable and high efficiency electricity supplies, comprehensive improvements to DWR’s construction practices, and improvements to DWR’s business activities.

In total, DWR estimates that these measures will reduce annual GHG emissions in 2020 by over 1 million metric tons and by over 2.5 million metric tons in 2050.

The DWR Climate Action Plan Phase I: Greenhouse Gas Reduction Plan and associated California Environmental Quality Act Initial Study and Negative Declaration were approved and adopted respectively by DWR director Mark Cowin on May 24, 2012 and were filed with the State Clearinghouse on June 1^st, 2012.  These documents and more information on the Plan can be found here.

If you have any questions concerning this topic, please contact Hanspeter Walter from our office, or the KMTG attorney with whom you normally consult.

State Water Resources Control Board and the California Department of Water Resources Weigh in on Area of Origin Debate

On June 5, 2012, the State Water Resources Control Board (“SWRCB”) and the California Department of Water Resources (“DWR”) filed a brief as amici curiae in support of affirmance of the district court in the pending Ninth Circuit appeal of Tehama-Colusa Canal Authority v. U.S. Department of Interior, et al., Case No. 11-17199.

As we previously reported (here, here, and here), the United States District Court for the Eastern District of California ruled in August 2011 that water users in the Sacramento Valley have no preferential right to delivery of Central Valley Project water under California’s so-called “area of origin” laws.

In the amicus curiae brief, DWR and the SWRCB make the following concluding remarks:

It is undisputed that the Tehama-Colusa agreed to a water delivery contract with the Bureau that imposed a pro-rata shortage provision and did not recognize any preference based on California’s Area-of-Origin Statute.  It is also undisputed that Appellant did not try to obtain a water right from the SWRCB, even if Appellant believes it had an Area-of-Origin priority by virtue of its contract with the Bureau. These facts alone are sufficient to affirm the district court’s order granting summary judgment in favor of the United States.

Appellant Tehama-Colusa Canal Authority must file its final appellate brief in Tehama-Colusa Canal Authority v. U.S. Department of Interior, et al., by June 28, 2012.  Oral argument will be scheduled following the completion of briefing.

If you have any questions concerning this topic, please contact Daniel J. O'Hanlon, Hanspeter Walter, or Rebecca R. Akroyd from our office, or the KMTG attorney with whom you normally consult.

Related Stories:

• KMTG Legal Alert: Sacramento Valley Farmers Have No Prior Right To Central Valley Project Water Under Area Of Origin Laws
• District Court Rejects Claims to Area of Origin Priority by Tehama-Colusa Canal Authority
• Tehama-Colusa Canal Authority Appeals Area of Origin Decision